The Rocky Road to the White House

Back at the beginning of 2024, it looked like this year’s presidential race was going to be very predictable, and somewhat boring, a replay of 2020. Boy, was that wrong! One candidate, Joe Biden, pulled out after a disastrous first TV debate, which was held untraditionally before the summer. Another, Donald Trump, has been the target of two apparent assassination attempts. And against all odds, latecomer Kamala Harris has created real momentum. Here’s a quick roundup of where things stand as the candidates enter the home straight towards the 5 November election.

The Republican ticket

Donald Trump, 78, billionaire property developer and businessman, served a first term as President 2017-2021. He lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden, but contested the results.

J.D. Vance, 40, grew up in poverty and served in the Marines before going to Yale Law School and becoming a venture capitalist in California. He has been a Senator for Ohio since 2022.

The Democratic ticket

Kamala Harris, 59, the current Vice-President. She was a senator for her home state of California 2017-2021, and ran for the Democratic nomination for the 2020 Presidential election. Previous to that she was the elected Attorney General of California, at the head of its judicial system.

Tim Walz, 60, a former high-school teacher and American football coach, who was a Congressman for 12 years and is currently in his second term as Governor of Minnesota.

Side to Side
Momentum in the race has swung dramatically from one camp to the other over recent months.

In the spring, despite his popularity with voters, Donald Trump was mired in several legal cases, and was found guilty in June of fraud in the trial about hush-money payments to an adult-film actress. But for now, all of the cases against Trump are on hold pending appeal or trial dates, so it seems unlikely that anything else will happen before the election.

On 27 June, there was an early TV debate between Donald Trump and President Joe Biden. Biden’s performance was considered poor by many voters and more and more concerns were expressed about his physical and mental capacity to serve a second term. Finally, on 21 July, he withdrew his candidacy and endorsed his Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Meantime, on 13 July, Donald Trump was shot in the ear by a sniper at an open-air rally in Pennsylvania. A bystander and the shooter were killed. On 15 September, Donald Trump again seemed to be the target of an assassination attempt when a man with an assault weapon was spotted by the Secret Service hiding in bushes on the golf course where the former President was playing.

After her nomination, Harris, and her newly named running mate Tim Walz, quickly began to rise in popularity in opinion polls. On 10 September, Harris was widely considered to have won her TV debate with Donald Trump. The Trump camp then refused to accept the traditional second presidential debate.

Not Just the White House
5 November is not only a Presidential election. All of the House of Representatives, a third of Senate seats and 11 out of 50 governors will also be elected. And it will make a major difference to whoever wins the White House if they do — or don’t — have a majority in one or both houses of Congress. The Democrats lost their majority in the House of Representatives in the 2022 Midterms, and have had a majority of one in the Senate. Which has made it extremely difficult for Joe Biden’s administration to pass legislation or even budgets. A presidential candidate can promise the Moon, but if they don’t have a majority in Congress, they will be very limited in the real action they can take.